Participants in the creation of this document included the market Intelligence staff, plus: Clark Anderson, Randy Battat, Fred Benz, Steve Burbeck, Frank Casanova, Bud Colligan, Scott Darling, John DeTroye, Ron Dumont, Wayne Dyer, Martin Haeberli, Mike Holm, Stacey Irvine, Bill Jacobs, Brodie Keast, Bob Martin, Mark Orr, Adam Paal, John Parenica, Alex Rosenberg, Larry Rosenstein, Michael Tchao, Paul Thompson, and probably some other names we missed.
Executive Summary
The NeXT Computer System was announced October 12. The pre-release machine that NeXT showed was more than a prototype, but less than a finished system. It features very powerful, leading-edge hardware at a relatively low price, and what looks to be an innovative operating system and user interface. However, it’s all vaporware at this point: the hardware is not yet in volume production, and the operating system is not finished.
Powerful hardware. NeXT’s machine will offer considerable power for its $6,500 higher education price. Its features include a 25 megahertz 68030 processor, eight megabytes of RAM, a 17-inch grayscale monochrome monitor, a 256-megabyte read/write optical drive, and a Macintosh-compatible SCSI connector. There is also an optional 400-dpi laser printer. But it’s important to remember that that NeXT’s price and performance edge may be sharply reduced by the time the machine ships, in about a year.
Innovative software. The software environment is very innovative, and uses a modified version of Unix. The programming and user interface environment, called NextStep, will use object-oriented features to greatly simplify program development. Software bundled with the machine includes a word processor, Sybase SQL database engine, and Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary. NeXT also announced support from a number of software developers, including Lotus, Cricket Software, Sybase, Frame Technology, and Adobe.
IBM license. IBM has licensed the NextStep interface for use on its PS/2 and RT computers running AIX Unix. IBM also licensed Display PostScript and Objective C.
Sales and support unclear. The announcement was long on demonstrations, but short on details about things like sales channels and support policies. The target market is clearly higher education. Widespread availability to that market will probably be late calendar 2Q or 3Q 1989.
A challenge to the industry. NeXT’s long-term strategy for growing into a major PC firm will take it into conflict with many of the major companies in the industry. The first primary target is Sun and the other workstation companies, to be followed later by mass-market firms like Apple and IBM.
An important machine. The NeXT machine is important both as a piece of hardware, and as a statement of direction. As hardware, it sets a very aggressive price-performance standard that will probably put pressure on other manufacturers. As a statement of direction, it challenges other computer-makers to address a number of issues, including complexity of third-party software development, less than ideal WYSIWYG in on-screen graphics, and use of innovative hardware.
Introduction
After three years in development and almost endless speculation, the NeXT Computer System was announced October 12 at a gala presentation in San Francisco. The pre-release machine that NeXT showed was more than a prototype, but less than a finished system. It features very powerful, leading-edge hardware at a relatively low price, and what looks to be an innovative operating system and user interface. However, the hardware is not yet in volume production, and the operating system is not finished. NeXT’s design is an innovative approach embodying a creative vision of the future of personal computing. NeXT’s computer is an effort to assert leadership in desktop computer development, both in hardware and software features and in long-term vision.
This report examines four facets of the NeXT announcement. The first discusses the NeXT hardware. The second discusses the software and development alliances. The third details the presentation of the machine, its apparent market positioning, and sales channels. The fourth examines NeXT’s likely impact on the industry. Not included is a detailed look at NeXT’s impact on Apple, which will be covered in other documents.
Section I: Hardware
Summary. Here are the most important facts about the NeXT Computer System hardware and accessories. The details follow in subsequent paragraphs.
• Price is $6,500 (to higher education customers; an equivalent retail price would be about $11,000).
• CPU is a 25 megahertz 68030, with eight megabytes of RAM.
• The monitor is 17-inch (landscape) grayscale monochrome.
• Standard storage is a 256-megabyte read/write optical disk system from Canon.
• Optional hard disks are just $2,000 for 330 megabytes ($4,000 for 660).
• System features a Macintosh-compatible high-speed SCSI connector and four 25 MHz slots with NuBus-compatible signals (one occupied by the system board).
• A 400 dpi laser printer will sell for $2,000 to universities.
Description. The “NeXT Computer System” consists of a CPU box (a one-foot cube called the Cube; see schematic at right), a monitor (called MegaPixel Display), two-button mouse, and keyboard. The mouse and keyboard plug into the monitor, so the Cube can sit on the floor.
CPU. The system uses a Motorola 68030 running at 25 megahertz. This is a leading-edge processor, and puts NeXT’s workstation in a class with non-RISC workstations from companies like Sun and Apollo. NeXT claims that the machine runs at five million instructions per second. Also on the system board are a 68882 math coprocessor from Motorola, and Motorola’s 56001 Digital Signal Processor (DSP). This is the first time Motorola’s DSP has been used in a PC. It is used for sound management, and NeXT says it can also be configured to work as a Fax or modem without extra hardware.
All of this equipment is wrapped in a solid magnesium cube, colored black. Not only does the solid metal case reduce electromagnetic emissions, but magnesium is an excellent heat sink, and probably reduces the amount of cooling needed (according to one report it has no fan, something we find hard to believe given its power requirements).
Memory. The computer comes with eight MB of RAM standard, expandable to 16. This is about standard for a workstation. Memory can be expanded to 64 MB when four-megabit chips become available. Appendix D shows how we think that memory is used.
Architecture. NeXT has made use of very large-scale integrated circuit (VLSI) chips to reduce the component count on its system board. The board has just 45 silicon components, which NeXT says is a lower count than even most PCs have. NeXT also spent a lot of time discussing its I/O architecture, which uses special processors to manage I/O and storage devices, leaving the central processor free for other tasks.
I/O is controlled by NeXT’s Integrated Channel Processor chip. It has twelve separate DMA channels, each capable of independently moving data between an I/O device and memory without interrupting the 68030. This allows the machine to perform a lot of complicated operations, like playing music, without interruptions from other tasks. Channels are dedicated to Ethernet support, serial port support, monitor support, memory to memory transfers, DSP support, storage device support, and sound support.
Connectors. The computer features a Macintosh-compatible SCSI connector, which NeXT says can run at four times the speed of the standard Macintosh SCSI connector. The machine should be able to use Macintosh peripherals (with the addition of appropriate software drivers). Inside the box is a backplane with four slots which generate NuBus-compatible signals (one occupied by the system board). We don’t think these slots can take standard Macintosh II expansion cards; the connectors and card format are different. However, it may be possible to reengineer Macintosh II cards to work with NeXT fairly easily. Other connectors include two serial ports and a thin Ethernet port.
The CPU is connected to the monitor by a single cable. This helps reduce the spaghetti at the back of the computer, and has already been pointed out by several observers as an improvement over existing systems.
Sound. The system can use the DSP to generate CD-quality sound (44.1 kHz, 16-bit, two-channel) through a speaker built into the monitor. A stereo headphone jack, line-out jacks for audio systems, and microphone input are also built into the display.
Monitor. The MegaPixel Display is a 17-inch monochrome model, apparently manufactured by Sony. The monitor has grayscale capabilities, but only two bits per pixel. That means it can display only four gray levels (including black and white). The name refers to the claim that the monitor has more than a million pixels total (actually 931,840). Resolution is 1120 by 832, which translates to about 90 pixels per inch (depending on the size of the screen margins, something we don’t yet know). By contrast, the standard Macintosh II color monitor is 640 by 480 pixels, at eight bits each.
Color will not be available until next year, and NeXT claims that resolution is more important anyway. We think it’s safe to assume that availability of a color model depends on the completion schedule for a color version of Display PostScript.
Storage. Standard is one 256-megabyte erasable optical drive from Canon. This product had not been publicly discussed before, although it had been offered to some other manufacturers. NeXT told the magazine UnixWorld that a second optical drive would be available as an option, but it was not mentioned at the announcement. The removable optical disks are expected to cost about $50 each.
Two expansion bays in the Cube can accommodate high-capacity 5.5-inch Maxtor hard disk drives. The prices for these drives are impressively low: 330 megabytes for $2,000, and 660 megabytes for $4,000 (university prices). There is no floppy drive.
Communications. Ethernet is the networking standard for NeXT. The company uses thin Ethernet, running at a claimed speed of 32 MB/sec.
Printer. A 400-dpi laser printer will be offered for $2,000 (university price). It is a modified SX engine from Canon (maximum speed eight pages per minute). The price for the printer is not surprising; because Display PostScript is included in the NeXT operating system, the printer does not require a separate PostScript controller board. Instead, images are dumped as bitmaps to the printer via a special port on the NeXT CPU. This is similar to what Apple does with the LaserWriter IISC, which sells to higher education for less than the NeXT printer will cost. Of course, the IISC does not have PostScript.
NeXT portrayed the 400 dpi resolution as an important differentiator from existing 300 dpi printers, but it’s actually an incremental adjustment that some manufacturers have already made to existing print engines. Although we think relatively few customers will be able to recognize a substantial difference between 300 and 400 dpi, it allows NeXT to say that its printer is superior.
The printer has a number of convenience features, including a universal paper tray, which can be adjusted to take paper sizes from envelopes to A4 size. It has no status lights or even a power switch; everything is controlled and monitored via the CPU. The printer apparently cannot be shared over a network, although we think a print server function could be added via software.
Section II: Software
Summary. The most important facts about the software are as follows:
• Operating system is a modified version of Unix, with a NeXT graphical interface.
• A programming and user interface environment called NextStep is part of the interface, and will use object-oriented features to greatly simplify program development.
• NextStep is still in development and won’t be complete until mid-1989.
• Many software packages are bundled with the machine, including a word processor, SQL database engine, and Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary.
• NeXT announced support from a number of software developers, including Lotus, Cricket Software, Sybase, Frame Technology, and Adobe.
• IBM has licensed the NextStep interface for use on its AIX Unix computers.
Operating system. NeXT uses Mach, an operating system kernel, developed at Carnegie-Mellon University (which owns 1/2% of NeXT). Unix (BSD 4.3) is run on top of this kernel. The operating system includes TCP/IP support and Sun’s Network File System (NFS). The OS is loaded from disk; unlike Macintosh, there is almost no operating system code in ROM.
User interface. The user interface, called Workspace Manager, offers windows, iconic file management, and floating menus (see the sample screen shot in Appendix C). A voice-recognition front end is under development, but may not be ready for some time. The left button of the two-button mouse is used almost exclusively; the right one is dedicated only to popping up the main menu.
Communications. The user interface will display remote hardware attached to the Ethernet network as icons on the desktop. There is also an E-Mail system that supports both text and voice and is ARPANET-compatible (see the screen shot in Appendix C). The machine can be booted off of Ethernet.
Development. The machine is bundled with the Objective C preprocessor from Stepstone Corp., along with a C compiler and source-level debugger from Free Software Foundation. NextStep, the NeXT development/user environment, can function as a front end to Objective C. It features four parts, controlled by 18 icons that Jobs said serve the same purpose as the entire 400+ commands in the Macintosh toolbox.
• Window Server manages all on-screen drawing, using Display PostScript.
• Application Kit is a set of predefined objects for Object C. In simplified terms, objects are sort of software macros capable of performing various common functions. New objects can be written by the user in Objective C.
• Interface Builder is the tool that builds an application from the parts in the Application Kit. (It’s a more-developed version of a Macintosh product by Jean-Marie Hullot. The Macintosh version, called ExperInterfaceBuilder, is available from ExperTelligence for use with its Lisp product.)
• Workspace Manager is the graphical user interface of the machine.
NextStep is scheduled to be finished by mid-1989. It is available in version 0.8 now.
IBM License. IBM announced that it has licensed NextStep, Objective C, and Display PostScript for use in color interfaces for future AIX Unix products. NeXT said during the announcement that NextStep applications will run on these AIX machines. Recompilation is apparently required, but NeXT implied that there will be minimal or no recoding (although not all IBM machines will have the DSP and other NeXT hardware). It’s interesting to note IBM’s mention of color, since NeXT’s machine is black and white.
Bundled software. Programs bundled with the machine include Mathematica, WriteNow, Franz Inc.’s Allegro Common Lisp, Sybase’s SQL Database Server, and three utilities from NeXT: Digital Librarian (a text database search tool), an electronic and voice mail interface, and Jot, a personal database manager. The Sybase product should allow NeXT machines to be configured as servers with little additional cost. These programs would probably cost $3,000 or more if purchased separately.
Digital library. Reference sources bundled on disk with the machine include Webster’s Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary (with a spelling checker and pictures), Webster’s Collegiate Thesaurus, the Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, the complete works of William Shakespeare, and all of the NeXT technical reference and user manuals.
Alliances. Several organizations announced support for NeXT. They included:
• Lotus President and CEO Jim Manzi spoke in a press release of “new distributed, graphically-oriented applications” under development. There was no hint of 1-2-3 being ported to NeXT.
• Cricket Software (Cricket Draw, Cricket Presents, etc.) announced support for NeXT, but did not specify which programs are being ported, or when.
• FrameMaker was endorsed by NeXT as the standard page layout product for its machine, according to a Frame Technology press release distributed by NeXT at the announcement. FrameMaker is a leading layout product for Sun workstations. The company said it would announce availability and pricing in January 1989.
• Adobe said it was porting over Illustrator and its font library. This was expected, since the machine uses Adobe’s Display PostScript.
• Mark of the Unicorn said it is porting its Performer MIDI sequencer.
• Others announcing support included Brown University (a foreign language instruction system), Dartmouth (a medical instruction system), University of Michigan (a system for performing artists), Addison-Wesley (to publish NeXT books), and David Bunnell (to publish a NeXT newspaper for colleges, starting January 1989).
Notable by their absence were Aldus (which probably was driven away permanently by the endorsement of Frame), and Microsoft (Bill Gates had unkind comments about the NeXT machine after the announcement). Only one major Macintosh developer, Cricket Software, announced support at this time. However, other alliances will probably follow.
Other applications slow to appear. The absence of a floppy disk drive, and NeXT’s focus on exclusive distribution to academia, makes it unlikely that a large number of developers will rush to port their software to the NeXT machine. We think a lot of developers will buy a machine to play with, drawn by its interesting features. How much serious development work they do will probably depend on how the machine sells, and how NeXT markets it.
Section III: Presentation, Positioning, and Sales
Summary. The announcement was long on demonstrations and directional statements, but short on details about things like sales channels and support policies. Here are the highlights:
• The target market is clearly higher education. This positioning is much firmer than we had expected.
• No information on distribution and support policies was given..
• The official end-user availability date is July 1989. Some units are shipping to developers, and more are promised within 45 days. We think volume shipment will probably begin in about a year.
• Market Intelligence estimates that NeXT’s gross profit margin on the machine (without software costs) would be 38% of the sales price if it were sold today—probably not enough to cover personnel and other fixed costs at the company. Anticipated cuts in RAM pricing will probably raise the margin by release time.
The announcement was, as expected, full of fanfare and attention-grabbing demonstrations. The capabilities emphasized by NeXT included voice and music synthesis, high-quality display, and ease of programming. The company also spent a lot of time promoting its hardware architecture. Steve Jobs labeled the computer a “personal mainframe.”
Target market. Higher education, almost exclusively. This positioning was very firm—a lot firmer than some industry observers had expected.
Distribution. Not mentioned at all. For the time being the machines will be drop-shipped to universities.
Support and service. Also not mentioned. This could be an important area, as the machine is unlikely to be bug-free on the first release. However, NeXT’s academic customers may be willing to tolerate more instability in the machine than others would.
Availability. Very unclear, probably intentionally so. Individual units are apparently shipping to developers and favored customers now, but there may be as few as 10 functioning NeXT workstations in the world today. Those were all hand-assembled; the NeXT production line is not yet in full operation.
There are few truly new technologies in the NeXT computer, other than the optical drive. Assuming that arrives from Canon on schedule, we think it is reasonable to expect NeXT’s hardware and the NextStep software environment to be in release, in version 1.0, by this time next year. July, the final ship time being quoted by NeXT today, may be a little optimistic given the complexity of the system and the realities of system software development. However, NeXT will probably be shipping late beta systems by then.
Manufacturing. The NeXT production line now being set up is reportedly heavily automated, so much so that human hands never touch the system board. Randy Heffner, an alumnus of Hewlett-Packard, runs the facility. The emphasis on automation and robotics translates into very high initial costs for NeXT, but also high production capacity.
Margin, costs. Market Intelligence developed a tentative hardware cost estimate, based on board photographs and other information from NeXT. The estimated hardware cost is about $4,000, giving a hardware profit margin of $2,500 per machine, or 38% of sales. This is a very low hardware margin, given that all of the company’s costs, including salaries, must be paid out of the remaining funds. However, remember that the machines won’t be sold until 1989. Declining component costs, especially DRAM, should bring the hardware cost to under $3,000 by the time the machine ships in quantity.
Section IV: Competitive Effects
The NeXT machine is important both as a piece of hardware, and as a statement of direction for the desktop computer industry. As hardware, it sets a very aggressive price-performance standard that will probably put pressure on other manufacturers. As a statement of direction, it challenges other computer-makers to address a number of weaknesses in their systems, including complexity of third-party software development, lack of true WYSIWYG in on-screen graphics, and general elegance of the computing system.
On the other hand, NeXT has a lot of factors working against it, including uncertainties about support from developers, support for customers, and the company’s own idiosyncrasies. NeXT’s competitors may have equal or superior machines on the market by the time the machine ships in quantity, in about a year. NeXT’s path to status as a major player in the computer industry is long and tortuous.
The Nature of the Challenge
Don’t overreact. Some of the people who attended the NeXT announcement were alarmed by the elegance of the computer and the enthusiastic reaction of the audience. They came away convinced that NeXT was going to wipe out entire product lines from other companies within a matter of a few months. These observers are wrong. If an elegant product alone were sufficient to bring down major competitors, Apple would have destroyed the MS-DOS PC market in 1986, and the Commodore Amiga would be one of the best-selling PCs today.
The computer is not available today. NeXT didn’t really announce a finished product in San Francisco; it just previewed something that will be shipping to universities in about a year. Its price is what people will pay for it in mid-1989, and its features are those of a computer that will ship at that time. To compare that price and feature set to products on the market today is inherently misleading. The appropriate comparison is to prices and products as they will be in a year. By that time, RAM prices will be much lower, and many of the major PC and workstation manufacturers will have released another generation of computers.
Psychological vs. physical impact. It’s important to separate the psychological impact of the NeXT announcement from the physical one. The impacts are very different in timing and appropriate response.
Psychological impact: Immediate and significant. The short-term effects of NeXT are psychological. Market Intelligence believes that the technical innovations embodied in the NeXT machine, and the enormous marketing skills of Steve Jobs, are already having an important effect on public perceptions of several major PC and workstation vendors. These effects were magnified by the overwhelmingly positive press coverage NeXT received (see Appendix A), and will help to shape the future of the industry, even if NeXT never ships a single box.
Competitors can and will respond to NeXT’s public relations machine through counter-marketing. We expect to see Sun and several other computer companies try to put their own “spin” on public perceptions of NeXT. In fact, that process has already begun.
In the longer term, psychological effects will still play an important role, as NeXT tries to position itself as a computer industry leader. The perception of market momentum is a very intangible asset, but it has worked to Apple’s benefit over the last 24 months. This, not market share, is the thing NeXT wants to take from Apple immediately.
Physical impact: Delayed and slow-growing. NeXT cannot begin to have a physical impact on sales in the computer industry until it begins to ship its products in quantity, in 1989. Even then, the company’s impact will be confined mostly to higher education, its target market for all of that year. People outside of universities and research institutions will not be able to buy the NeXT computer at all until sometime in 1990 at the earliest.
A long-term strategy. This does not mean that NeXT plans to ignore the general PC market in the long run, but the assault won’t come until the early 1990s. NeXT does not currently have the support structure and sales staff needed to pursue a mass market, and it will take years to develop them.
The Master Plan
We think the key word to understanding NeXT’s strategy is “leverage.” NeXT is trying to leverage the maximum growth possible from the company’s strengths, minimizing its weaknesses, and allowing it to grow into a major player in the computer industry by about 1992.
The key tasks for each year are as follows:
• 1988, announce the product and attract attention.
• 1989, ship to higher education.
• 1990, strengthen presence in higher education. Begin development of relationships with workstation value-added resellers. Begin to build product support infrastructure.
• 1991, strengthen VAR sales. Develop product support infrastructure.
• 1992, enter the business computer market.
NeXT moves from the education market to reliance on both educators and workstation VARs. The two markets are similar in that they don’t demand a high level of support from the manufacturer. Applications and a support structure are developed during this time, after which the company is ready to assault the mainstream PC market. Note that NeXT’s primary sales competitors change over the years; at first, they are Sun and other workstation companies. After about 1991, the focus shifts to IBM, Apple, and other mainstream PC companies.
NeXT Strengths
By developing a new machine from scratch, NeXT had an opportunity to reexamine the mistakes and tradeoffs made by other computer manufacturers. This sort of blank-slate engineering almost always yields some improvements over existing products. In addition, concentrating on the higher education market allows NeXT to get away with support and distribution policies that could not be successful in the mainstream PC world. It also has a dramatic effect on introductory pricing, because there is no dealer markup.
A next-generation PC. Steve Jobs contends that his company has created a next-generation personal computer. We think he is probably right. The NeXT architecture shows no obvious major flaws (although some elements are risky), and the software environment impressed those who have seen it. It is still not clear if Jobs will be able to deliver on his promises, but the machine he demonstrated shows how personal computers may work and be structured in the next decade.
Price leadership—sort of. The NeXT machine is a hacker’s delight. It is packed with advanced hardware and interesting capabilities, and has provoked a reaction close to lust on many computer bulletin boards (see Appendix A for examples). A repeated contention is that the hardware is a very good deal for $6,500. And it is, in some ways. If NeXT does what it says, it will surpass the performance of a fully-configured low-end Sun workstation for about 2/3 the higher education price. This sets a very stiff price-performance standard that Sun and other manufacturers will be hard-pressed to meet.
However, the NeXT machine is not as cheap as it sounds. It is not being sold at a full retail price, because there is no distribution or dealer network. The price quoted by the company is what end-users will actually pay for it. The suggested retail prices of other manufacturers, on the other hand, are rarely paid by customers. Retailers discount computers extensively, and the markdown for higher education education sales is often even greater—as much as 50% in many cases. As the chart in Appendix B demonstrates, when discounts are taken into account, NeXT’s price-performance advantage over Macintosh is reduced (although not eliminated). It is critical not to compare NeXT’s higher education prices to the suggested retail prices of other manufacturers.
Furthermore, comparing NeXT’s pricing to that of other companies today is still misleading, because NeXT is not yet shipping. By the time NeXT does ship, it will face a new group of competitive machines not yet announced today.
No hardware breakthroughs... There really aren’t any. Most of the hardware in the machine is leading-edge, but none of it was a major surprise. Perhaps the sexiest component is the rewritable optical drive, but even that had been expected to be available from someone in 1989.
...but innovative architecture. What is important about the hardware is the way the pieces have been put together. For instance, the DSP chip from Motorola adds powerful new capabilities in sound processing and other areas, but it would have little data to process without the high-capacity optical storage system. That storage system, in turn, would overwhelm the CPU if not for the two dedicated I/O processor chips. Those chips also free up the machine to handle high-speed networking and number-crunching simultaneously. All of this power could easily confront a developer with an enormously complex programming task, but the operating system includes an object-oriented front end designed to attack that particular problem.
Designed for the future. The hardware and software design will probably allow NeXT to scale the performance of the machine easily and quickly. The NeXT operating system is being revised to allow multiple processors; when that is finished, NeXT will be able to create more powerful computers by just adding more system boards. The implications of this for ease of upgrades are obvious. This will also allow NeXT to build computers to order, something it reportedly plans to do.
Interesting software as well. The NeXT user interface also appears to be a step forward. It is hard to judge without hands-on tests, but the interface appears to be well thought-out and relatively easy to use. We think it makes Presentation Manager’s standard interface look weak.
Development system critical. However, probably the most important element of the software is the NextStep development system. NeXT said it greatly simplify the task of developing graphically-based software. This positions NeXT as a friend to software developers, and gives those developers a very strong incentive to try the machine. Often the best, most creative developers are the quickest to move to innovative new systems; if NeXT can attract and hold these people, it will have achieved an important victory.
How good is the software? It is impossible to evaluate completely the features and capabilities of NextStep without a hands-on session, something that will probably not be possible for at least another month. Our sense is that it’s a significant improvement over current PC programming environments. The interface-construction tools are attractive, and the programming environment appears to be very elegant.
NeXT was vague about the amount of coding that NextStep would save, but the company implied that the saving would be enormous. We think NextStep probably will not reduce the amount of coding as dramatically as NeXT implied, but it does appear to reduce it some. More importantly, the tasks it simplifies—particularly the construction of graphical interfaces—are some of the most intimidating to many programmers.
Even if the NeXT development system is not everything Steve Jobs claims it will be, it changed developers’ expectations permanently. Jobs has clearly touched a raw nerve in many software developers, and in doing so has obsoleted every traditional development environment on the market. Programmers have seen what they believe is the future of software development, and they will demand it.
The power of idiosyncrasy. The NeXT machine shows a lot of attention to detail, even in small things like the banishment of printer status lights and the single-cable connection between the CPU and monitor. The user interface shows similar touches; our favorite is the choice of a black hole as the icon for disposing of files (the black hole rotates when files are dumped into it). These are the sort of small idiosyncratic touches that often delight reviewers.
Even if NeXT is a sales failure (still a very real possibility), we think its system is bound to be recognized by the industry as an innovative, extremely elegant design.
NeXT Weaknesses
Compared to Apple or any other established PC company, NeXT has a lot of pieces missing. There is no distribution or customer support network, there is precious little developer support, and the operating system is not yet finished. Also, some hardware components needed to make the system complete (a scanner, color and full grayscale monitors, wide-area communications boards, etc.) are not yet announced. If NeXT were aiming at quick penetration of the business market, we would count it out immediately. But higher education may not see these as significant shortcomings, giving NeXT enough time to perfect its system and build up more applications. It is probably best to consider the NeXT computer (and company) a work in progress, rather than an end product.
Problems with idiosyncrasy. The same innovative idiosyncrasies that delight reviewers also sometimes drive them to distraction, because they usually involve assumptions about the way people will think and work. To use a trivial instance, some users might like to have a light on the printer that would indicate when it’s out of paper.
Where’s the floppy drive? A much more significant example, we think, is the absence of a floppy disk drive. The only standard storage devices for the NeXT machine are the optical disk drive and the optional hard disks. This system assumes that users will exchange data files by sending them over the Ethernet network; a reasonable assumption on university campuses, but not everywhere else. What’s more, in the standard one-drive configuration, there is no straightforward way to back up one optical disk onto another. It may be unrealistic to expect a user to carry around his or her life’s work on a single diskette that could easily be lost or stolen.
The group most upset about the missing floppy disk is commercial software developers. With the current system, they are forced to deliver software either electronically, or on $50 optical disks. NeXT said it might also be willing to distribute an optical disk containing locked copies of all developers’ programs. The copies could be unlocked only by calling the developer and paying for the access code. Commercial developers reportedly rejected all three options very firmly at NeXT’s October 13 developer seminar.
At least one major Macintosh software developer contends privately that NeXT wants to control software development for its machine, and that the floppy drive was omitted intentionally for this reason. It’s not clear if he is correct. NeXT could easily add a floppy or tape drive at a later date via the SCSI port. Probably the most important point is that the computer was designed to operate within a relatively specialized environment, one that may not always exist in the customer’s installation. One lesson Apple has learned from its experience with Macintosh is not to make too many assumptions about how the customer will use the machine. NeXT may have missed this point.
Other NeXT features about which we have questions include:• Two-bit grayscale. The NeXT monitor can display only two bits of grayscale information per pixel. This means it can display only four gray levels, including black and white. By contrast, the standard Macintosh II monitor can display 256 grays, enough to realistically show a photograph. The grayscale capabilities of the NeXT machine are almost shockingly poor. We suspect that the two-bit limitation is due to shortcomings in Display PostScript, but whatever the cause, this feature alone is enough to seriously limit the machine’s utility in professional-level desktop publishing. This may not be a major issue in academic environments, but it will impede NeXT’s attempt to position its computer as superior to Macintosh in desktop publishing.
• Disk access speed. The access speed for the optical drive was not given, but is probably in the range of 90 msec. That’s about equivalent to the first Macintosh hard disks, which drew substantial complaints about slow response. The disk may be faster at reading information sequentially, which might overcome some of this problem. We believe that the demonstrations in San Francisco were run off the internal hard disk, not the optical drive.
• Optical drive availability. The biggest hardware uncertainty in the NeXT system is the availability of the optical drive. The Canon drive is a very new system, not yet shipping in quantity to anyone. If something were to delay the drive, NeXT could have a serious problem.
• Hardware uncertainties. ASIC chips the size of those used by NeXT are very complex and difficult to develop. In scale they are beyond anything yet used in a Macintosh. Apple engineers suspect that these chips could cause trouble for NeXT. The amount of power run through the power supply might also create interference affecting the sound outputs.
• Memory consumption. In mid-September, NeXT told the magazine Unix World that its standard configuration would have four megabytes of RAM. In the following 30 days, that was bumped to eight megabytes. We suspect that a four-megabyte machine was not capable of simultaneously printing and running an application—not surprising to those familiar with Unix, but not at all acceptable in a general-use PC today.
• Speed of Display PostScript. The NeXT machine looked fast in the demonstrations, but then so does Presentation Manager. There have been continuing rumors—some from NeXT developers—that Display PostScript is slow in actual use. If this is true, it will be a major strike against NeXT.
• Can NextStep deliver? A possible weakness of NextStep may be in the flexibility of the interface and program-development tools. Like HyperCard, NextStep appears to give convenient access to a subset of the capabilities of the computer, but not all of them. We suspect that serious commercial developers will have to add a lot more objects to the Application Kit in order to produce a finished program. This is a relatively minor concern for NeXT today, since it is selling only to universities. But a richer toolkit would be essential to a mainstream company like Apple.
• Compatibility with Macintosh peripherals. Although NeXT says the SCSI connector on the machine is Macintosh-compatible, it is not clear if this is enough to ensure compatibility with Macintosh peripherals. At a minimum, new interface software for the peripherals will have to be developed. However, Unix device drivers are relatively straightforward to develop, so this may not be an overwhelming problem.
• The choice of Objective C. Advocates of various varieties of the C programming language are very firm in their beliefs. Proponents of Objective C, the version chosen by NeXT, say that it is easy to learn and has a “runtime linking” facility that allows applications to interact in very powerful ways. Proponents of C++, the version selected by Apple, argue that it is a standard promoted by AT&T and used at most universities, and that runtime binding capabilities can be added to it.
• The single cable to the monitor. Although this configuration is more convenient to the user, a short-circuit in the cable could feed power directly into the CPU. On the other hand, routing the power from the CPU makes the monitor independent of international power standards, meaning that a single model can be shipped anywhere.
Support from developers a question. If this were a standard PC, the low level of announced developer support might be a major concern. At the announcement, NeXT had public support from fewer major PC software manufacturers than Macintosh did at its announcement. In addition, out of the hundreds of Unix developers, NeXT has managed to attract public support from only one, Frame Technology. There are no announced third-party plans to develop NeXT-compatible applications in critical areas like spreadsheets and CAD. Even the developer support that was expressed appeared very general, with few commitments about product plans or deadlines.
We think NeXT is counting on the IBM licensing deal to attract commercial software developers to NextStep. However, the level of interest of these developers will be directly proportional to the level of support for NextStep shown by IBM. If IBM makes NextStep its standard Unix interface, the developers will probably come over to it very quickly. If IBM, as we expect, makes NextStep only an option, the level of developer enthusiasm may be lower.
Porting issues. NeXT says that standard text-based Unix applications can be moved to its machine fairly easily. Other Unix applications require additional modification, while moving over PC applications requires varying levels of rewrites. The details are summarized in the table below.
Application Format Migration Path
Unix Text-based
Little modification
Unix Graphical
Rewrite graphics calls to Display PostScript
Re-implement user interface and event handling using NextStep.
PC C-based
Rewrite OS-dependent calls into Unix.
Rewrite graphics calls to Display PostScript.
Re-implement user interface and event handling using NextStep.
PC other languages
Re-write all calls into C, or sacrifice functionality.
Rewrite OS-dependent calls into Unix.
Rewrite graphics calls to Display PostScript.
Re-implement user interface and event handling using NextStep.
The most important information is that programs written in Pascal or other non-C languages will either require a total rewrite into C, or will not be able to take full advantage of the NextStep interface. In NeXT’s words, “it is questionable how well they can be integrated into NextStep.” Many Macintosh applications are written in Pascal, and there is no easy migration path for moving them to NeXT. This will seriously hinder the movement of many Macintosh applications to NeXT.
The university market helps. NeXT may be able to survive this situation because it has some specialized software in education-specific areas, and because academics are generally much more tolerant of works in progress, especially since they view this as a machine designed for them. By making some universities into developers, NeXT in many ways turns them into cheerleaders instead of critical customers. If NeXT doesn’t plan an assault on the mainstream PC market until the early 1990s, it can afford to take its time attracting PC programmers.
Customer support a question. How will the NeXT Computer System be supported? If it breaks down, will there be a service representative available to fix it? This may be where NeXT investor H. Ross Perot comes into the picture; he has a lot of experience in providing on-site computer service. Nevertheless, on-site service can be expensive, and users still do not have a dealer to act as a local support point.
Effects on Companies
The remainder of this document summarizes the effect of the NeXT announcement on the rest of the industry.
Effects on Sun: A Hotter Box
Psychological effect: Challenges Sun’s image as a vendor of “hot boxes.” Probably tarnishes the reputation of Open Look.
Physical effect: NeXT will try to take control of workstation sales to universities, a growing market for Sun.
Key question: What is the status and feature set of Sun’s rumored “NeXT-killer?”
The company with the most to lose to NeXT in the short run is Sun Microsystems. Sun has made some large sales to universities, and the NeXT machine will deliver better price-performance than current low-end Sun workstations. Also, NeXT is courting academic customers intensely, an effort Sun will have trouble matching without a redeployment of resources.
Software strengths. We think NeXT has some significant advantages over Sun in user interface and development tools. Sun’s graphical interface, Open Look, will probably be finished at about the same time as NeXT’s. From what we have seen of both, NeXT’s may turn out to be better. NeXT also has the NextStep software development system, which is in some ways superior to the Sun environment. On the other hand, we suspect that Sun’s C tools may be more robust than the public domain ones bundled by NeXT.
Sun’s strengths. Sun still has some very powerful advantages, though—including a full product line, color systems, a large application base, and a large and established sales and service network. NeXT cannot hope to match these strengths in the near future, and therefore cannot hope to drive Sun out of universities overnight.
A price war is possible. Because Sun has some significant hardware and software weaknesses, we think it may choose to fight NeXT in the short run through price cuts. This sort of Sun-NeXT competition could in turn put price pressure on other vendors to higher education, especially Apple.
A challenge to image. But more than anything else, NeXT is a philosophical challenge to Sun. Sun has thrived by being a vendor of “hot boxes”—the latest technologies, driven to blazing speeds. For the first time in a long time, a competitor is confronting Sun directly with a hotter box. Sun’s response, the long-rumored “NeXT-killer” PC—will be compared to NeXT’s computer very thoroughly. If Sun is found wanting, its image will be badly hurt.
Effect on Silicon Graphics: An Interesting Match-Up
Psychological effect: Focuses attention on SGI’s lack of a graphical user interface.
Physical effect: Both companies will be courting the HED workstation market in 1989.
Key question: Which will universities prefer—a relatively slow workstation with nice software at $6,500, or a fast workstation with average software at $15,000?
Also pursuing education. Silicon Graphics is the leading vendor of 3D graphics workstations. The company has just released a new product, called the Personal Iris, which for the first time brings real-time shaded color 3D drawing to the desktop for under $20,000. In terms of raw speed, the Personal Iris is at least a generation ahead of the NeXT machine, and it already has several hundred applications (migrated down from the company’s high-end products). One of SGI’s primary target markets for the Personal Iris is higher education, where it plans to take on Sun directly.
An interesting match-up. By the time NeXT ships, the price of a fully-configured Personal Iris will probably be down to $15,000 or so; perhaps a little less for higher education (this is based on pricing trends from previous SGI systems). For two times the price of a NeXT system, SGI customers will be able to get a much faster workstation, with color graphics and very powerful engineering and CAD software. These are formidable advantages. On the other hand, SGI’s proprietary graphical interface is still under development (although it should be out next year), and it has no development system similar to NextStep. We think that SGI and NeXT are likely to appeal to different portions of the academic community, with SGI dominating in sales to engineers and other CAD-related disciplines, and NeXT doing best in sales to softer sciences and the humanities.
Effect on IBM: Weapons for Workstations
Psychological effect: Allows IBM to claim a leadership position in Unix workstations.
Physical effect: Depends on how IBM chooses to use NextStep.
Key question: How enthusiastically will IBM support NextStep, and when?
We believe that the workstation division of IBM licensed NextStep for use as a competitive weapon against other workstation vendors, particularly Sun. The combination of NextStep, Display PostScript, and Objective C should give IBM substantial differentiation over Sun’s systems, especially if paired with a new RT system rumored to be close to release (IBM’s press release at the NeXT announcement hinted at such a product). We also wonder if IBM might team all this software with the 3D graphics hardware it just licensed from Silicon Graphics.
A tactic, not a strategy. However, we think it would be a mistake to view IBM’s action as a long-term strategic move affecting the corporation as a whole. The company is far too committed to Presentation Manager and SAA to switch interfaces now. We also do not believe IBM would tie itself very closely to an interface controlled by Steven Jobs. IBM has suffered too much at the hands of Bill Gates and Microsoft to hand over control of a strategic technology to another outsider.
A potential conflict with OSF. NeXT made it very clear that it will not submit its interface to Open Software Foundation, the group of workstation vendors trying to define a standard version of Unix. However, IBM was a founding member of OSF, and therefore might be expected to support whatever standard OSF develops. This could confront IBM with a choice between supporting the Unix interface selected by OSF and supporting NextStep.
This is not an immediate danger, though, because OSF won’t finish work for about two years. Even when it does, IBM will not be legally obligated to accept the OSF standard, although we wouldn’t be surprised if IBM at least offered it as an option on its Unix machines. Bill Filip, general manager of IBM’s Personal Systems group, implied to PC Week that IBM would offer both the OpenLook and NextStep interfaces.
Will NextStep be an option? It’s not clear whether IBM will offer NextStep as an option for its Unix machines, or bundle it with them. IBM may not have decided yet. The press release from IBM at the NeXT announcement was very vaguely-worded. The release did not explicitly say IBM would bundle NextStep, and neither did NeXT. Therefore, we believe that it will probably not be bundled. This would allow IBM to use NextStep as a sales tool, without allying the company too strongly with Steve Jobs.
IBM gains a publicity bonus by endorsing NextStep and Display PostScript, because it gains the image of being a leading-edge vendor. But this effect may not carry beyond its workstation division, since SAA and Presentation Manager are clearly the focus of the company as a whole. The fact that workstations were exempted from the SAA interface requirements imposed on the rest of the company may be a hint that IBM does not regard workstations as a strategic part of its business.
Effect on Microsoft: Bad News
Psychological effect: Makes Presentation Manager look very primitive.
Physical effect: May fragment support for OS/2, strengthen Unix.
Key question: Does OS/2 have enough support to overwhelm Unix, in spite of doubts about Presentation Manager?
Undisguised hostility. One of the least enthusiastic observers of the NeXT announcement was Microsoft. It’s little surprise—Steve Jobs’ new company is like something out of a bad dream for Bill Gates. NeXT’s user interface and programming environment is clearly superior to Presentation Manager, it strengthens support for Unix (a developing rival to OS/2), and NeXT is supplying its interface to IBM, Microsoft’s biggest OEM customer. NeXT must be causing some restless nights in Redmond.
Effect on Open Software Foundation: Weakened Support
Psychological effect: Creates another competing Unix standard.
Physical effect: May weaken support of IBM for OSF’s standard.
Key question: Can OSF top NeXT—assuming it sticks together at all?
Another group with a lot to lose to NeXT is the Open Software Foundation, the Unix standards group formed in reaction to Sun and AT&T. OSF is currently trying to define the graphical interface for its version of Unix, and NeXT’s interface was not submitted as a candidate. Because NeXT’s interface and development environment have been so well-promoted, OSF may need to top them in order for its brand of Unix to catch on. By demonstrating a high-quality proprietary interface, and supplying it to IBM, NeXT is weakening the ability of OSF to produce an open standard.
Minimal Effect on Other PC Companies
Most other PC companies face relatively little direct competition from NeXT over the next few years, because most of them do not have a large presence in sales to universities. NeXT plans no sales outside of institutions in 1989, and no sales outside the United States through 1990.
Effect on Adobe Systems: Good Publicity
Psychological effect: NeXT and IBM together transfer a lot of momentum to Display PostScript.
Physical effect: DPS finally becomes a real product, sometime soon.
Key question: Does DPS have the “Right Stuff?”
The coupled NeXT announcement and IBM endorsement of Display PostScript give a significant boost to Adobe’s graphics package. However, IBM’s plans for using DPS were unclear. We think DPS has not yet gained the momentum it needs in order to become a viable standard. But it’s a lot closer than it was a week ago.
A key question for Adobe will be customer perceptions of the speed of Display PostScript. Observers at the NeXT announcement reported that it appeared to draw on the NeXT screen at about the same speed as QuickDraw on a Macintosh II. Given the advanced hardware of the NeXT machine, this is not very impressive speed— especially considering that the NeXT demonstration was undoubtedly optimized for performance. Other vendors may have an opportunity to eclipse DPS if they can deliver better price-performance graphics packages by the time NeXT ships in October 1989.
Effects on Apple: Who Will Lead?
Psychological effect: Challenges Apple’s position as the leader in developing the desktop computer of the future.
Physical effect: Could pull developer mindshare away from Apple.
Key question: How does Apple respond?
It is normal for companies with the size and market position of Apple to be challenged by new innovative start-ups. These companies typically identify a weakness in the products or strategy of the larger firm, and seek to exploit it. Usually, if the larger company is nimble and responsive, the smaller one goes nowhere.
A philosopher once said, “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” We think NeXT is likely to make Apple stronger, rather than the alternative. Apple has tremendous strengths in installed base, support from developers, customer reputation, and dealer access—not to mention the company’s engineering and marketing staff, which we think are invaluable assets. We think Apple remains better-positioned than any other company to lead the PC industry.
But as a company increases in size, inertia can develop, which reduces its ability to respond to changing market conditions. Steve Jobs will try to portray Apple as the new IBM, overgrown and out of touch with the real world. We think NeXT’s approach does expose vulnerabilities in Apple’s products and strategies. If these weaknesses are addressed quickly and effectively, Apple can become much more effective against not only NeXT, but other computer firms as well. Apple has competed for too long only against business-oriented MS-DOS vendors which have no fundamental vision beyond selling more boxes. It should be very healthy for Apple to finally have challenges on the left, as well as the right.
Conclusion
Throughout his career, Steve Jobs has been a tonic for the American computer industry. Whether right or wrong, his articulate assertiveness usually helps to break up old patterns of thought and challenge the traditional ways of doing business within the industry. The computer industry should be more interesting now that Steve is back.
Appendix A: Public Reaction
The public reactions to the NeXT announcement were overwhelmingly positive. Here are some representative samples, extracted from published news reports, except where otherwise noted.
NeXT and Friends
“We’ll have to achieve a certain scale....The world doesn’t need another $100 million computer company.”
—Steve Jobs
“I just wish I’d invested more.”
—H. Ross Perot, NeXT investor
“The vision of NeXT is very simple: to get even, first of all. Then to be better than everyone else.”
—Hartmut Esslinger, president, Frogdesign (designer of the NeXT case)
Industry Observers, Analysts, Etc.
“It’s very hot. It puts lots of incredible ideas into one stupendous package.”
—Esther Dyson, publisher, Release 1.0
“I didn’t expect it, but he’s got a great machine....The excitement Apple had, well, Steve has it now.”
—Richard Shaffer, editor, Technologic Computer Letter
“It’s a real mind-blower....It’s not smoke and mirrors....The way NeXT will be a threat is when Apple comes out with its next Macintosh. People are going to point to it and say, ‘Why isn’t the sound as good? Why is it so slow when it performs multitasking?’”
—Stewart Alsop, editor, PCLetter
“It’s a Swiss army knife for propeller heads....Whether this machine succeeds or fails in the market, it’s going to reset user expectations for desktop workstations for the foreseeable future....The real issue is who is the keeper of the vision.”
—Paul Saffo, research fellow, Institute of the Future, Palo Alto
“It’s very important hardware for what it is; it’s the best hardware so far. I’m really glad it’s gotten so much attention. It’ll set a new baseline other computers have to come up to....I’ve come to learn you can add up a lot of great product qualities on paper, yet it just doesn’t make it. I think Steve’s got a tough row to hoe. I hope he’s prepared to wait out a couple years.”
—Steven Wozniak, Apple cofounder
“You can buy a new car for less, and most students will....Overall, we are disappointed: This new product will not feel different than any other current computer, to either the programmer or the user. It does not go in any new directions. The NeXT machine may be a minor extrapolation of current engineering practice, but there’s no hint of genius in it.”
—Jef Raskin, president, Information Appliance, and a key figure
in the development of Macintosh at Apple
“Everything on your wish list is there.”
—Jonathan Seybold, publisher, Seybold Report on Desktop Publishing
The NextStep license “leapfrogs them (IBM) from the laggard in the computer-interface wars to a leadership position, ahead of Apple.”
—Jonathan Seybold
“It’s a significant technological advance from what’s out there now and it makes you question where all those research and development dollars at other companies have gone.”
—Michele Preston, PC analyst for Salomon Brothers
“What he’s trying to do from a tactical point of view is to offset some of his major competitor sales in the heavy year-end selling season. You make the user postpone their decision until they can have a good look at the NeXT product.”
—Don Sinsabaugh, Swergold Chevitz & Sinsabaugh
“For less than you would pay for a Mac II, you get a machine that’s got twice the memory, three times the storage space, roughly three times the resolution, and a laser printer that’s got four hundred dots per inch resolution instead of three hundred dots resolution.”
—David Grandy, publisher, Grandy Report, quoted on PBS’ Nightly Business Report
“It’s aimed right smack at Apple and it will do a lot of damage....I think it’s a disaster for the Mac II in education.”
—Michael Murphy, editor, California Technology Stock Letter
“I think this is going to be a great comeback story.”
—Bruce Lupatkin, Hambrecht & Quist
NeXT “could end up being just another bowl of spaghetti out there.”
—Jay Stevens, Dean Witter Reynolds
“It’s like audio equipment we buy where only your dog can tell the difference.”
—Howard Anderson, Yankee Group, contending that the average customer won’t know what is special about NeXT
“Steve has delivered the revolutionary machine he promised.”
—Lee Frank, president, Institute of Computer Research, Sarasota, FL
“It’s a Woodstock for computer journalists....A lot of people feel they missed Apple 1 and are going for Apple 2.”
“Even the President doesn’t have that kind of control.”
—ABC cameraman Charlie Jones, complaining about restrictions
on the press during NeXT’s announcement
“The hype and hoopla surrounding the NeXT introduction ensured that no sentient adult could overlook the new product....Unless NeXT grows faster than Apple, Compaq or Sun in their early years, he, his product and his company will be cursed forever with the epithet ‘didn’t live up to expectations.’”
—Editorial in PCWeek
“Jobs has his piece of the mountain again....He’s saying to Sculley, ‘I’m back, and I’ve got a mainframe on two chips.’”
—Fred Abatemarco, editor, Personal Computing
Academics & Students
“My gut feeling is that it will have a big impact on higher education, not only by what it is, but by the signal it sends to the rest of the industry.”
—Douglas Van Houweling, vice provost for information technology,
University of Michigan.
The NeXT machine will “free students and teachers from textbooks, giving them the freedom to marvel in worlds never before possible in the classroom.”
—Bill Honig, superintendent of public instruction for California
“We’re fairly jaded and cynical, but these folks really did a good job.”
—Ronald Johnson, associate vice president for computing and communications, University of Wisconsin
The following comments were taken from the USENET bulletin board:
“I think many people (including myself) were very skeptical about NeXT as to whether or not they’d bring a real product to the market. I’m truly impressed! I can’t think of any other computer system that was as well thought out as this one is....How I wish I had tools like this to use when I was a CS student.”
—Isaac Salzman, RAND Corp.
“I wouldn’t want to run Mach from the optical drive, although it could be done.”
—Bob Sutterfield, Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Ohio State
“It’s clear that Sun is perfectly capable of matching the NeXT machine in at least gross terms....The real question is going to be whether the NeXT sound and display technology really turn out to be useful,” and whether the machine is usable in universities outside the computer science department.
—Charles Hedrick, Rutgers University
“My Sun 3/50 looks like ---- compared to the NeXT.”
—John Ralph, IntelliGenetics, Inc.
“The nine month delay (optimistically) until solid software exists could kill NeXT, as Sun & Apple prepare competitive systems.” (His parentheses.)
—Chris Perleberg, UC Berkeley
“I almost bought a Mac II A/UX machine. I like the Mac II. I have the $6,000+ to buy it. I’m buying a NeXT machine. When you get down to brass tacks, NeXT is giving you an order of magnitude more features for your dollar than Apple (or IBM or Sun, I bet)....I’m really trying not to look like the emissary from the Church of the Almighty Jobs...I used to be the biggest NeXT cynic around here.”
—Ken Seefried, School of Information and Computer Science, Georgia Tech.
Developers
“Higher education is not enough; I hope we’ll be buying the NeXT machine at Businessland next year.”
—Clinton Nagy, systems division sales manager, Adobe Systems
“Steve is pushing the technology in the right direction, and it’s great. But until the software is developed and we get our hands on it we won’t know for sure.”
—Mitch Kapor, formerly of Lotus, now chairman of On Technology
“I hope the announcement galvanizes Apple into building EtherTalk into the Mac. It can’t be a $700 add-on.”
—Mitch Kapor
“After the initial shock, when workstation makers realize they can’t do spin control, they’ll say Jobs is right.”
—Mitch Kapor
“Commercially, the NeXT machine will have no impact on Apple for the next few years.”
—Barry Schuler, CEO, Cricket Software
“Faculty and students are willing to buy development tools without a base of applications....Jobs can continue to develop and refine his machine without fearing that some business person would kill him because the machine crashes.”
—Steve Edelman, chairman, SuperMac Technology
“NeXT has the same religious leader, but not the cash cow.”
—Trip Hawkins, president of Electronic Arts, comparing Apple in the early days of Macintosh, with NeXT today
“He’s a leader. People don’t know where they’re being led yet, but they’re willing.”
—Mark Canter, MacroMind
Bill Gates
The CEO of Microsoft was almost alone in his categorical rejection of the NeXT machine, which was not surprising since it threatens Microsoft. As these samples show, Gates had few kind words for the hardware, software, or founder.
“Steve always yells at me. Sometimes with a positive tone in his voice, sometimes with a negative tone.”
“He put a microprocessor in a box. So what. It’s got a graphic interface, like everything these days, and a mouse, like everything these days.”
“It’s a 48-rpm record.”
“Only Steve could get this kind of coverage for an educational black and white machine.”
“It’s just not a competitive machine.”
“Frankly, I’m disappointed. Back in 1981, we were truly excited by the Macintosh when Steve showed it to us, because when you put it side by side with another computer, it was unlike anything anybody had ever seen before.”
“In the grand scope of things, most of these features are truly trivial.”
“There’s nothing revolutionary about it.”
“I defy you to show me one breakthrough in it. It’s pure hype.”
